Cubs seek another win over visiting Phils

Baseball Betting Lines

07/17/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It's been all smiles for the Chicago Cubs on their current homestand and they'll go for a series victory this afternoon in the third test of a four-game series versus the Philadelphia Phillies at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs opened their 10-game homestand by handing the Phillies a 12-6 loss in Thursday's series opener before taking yesterday's second portion of this series, 4-3, on an Aramis Ramirez solo homer with two outs in the bottom of the eighth. Ramirez ended 3-for-4 with three runs scored and Marlon Byrd tied the game with a two-run homer in the sixth inning for the Cubs, who have won six of their last nine games.

"If that continues," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said on the team's site, "it's like a little forest fire that starts spreading a little bit. Let's keep working and keep playing and hope we keep winning some baseball games."

Ted Lilly started for the Cubs and did not record a decision after giving up three runs in seven innings. Sean Marshall recorded the victory with a scoreless eighth and Carlos Marmol struck out three in the ninth for his 17th save of the season.

Chicago will also host Houston and St. Louis on the residency.

Since beginning the season 3-0 over his first five starts, Cubs starter Randy Wells has struggled mightily. He is just 1-7 with a 5.11 earned run average in his last 13 starts and will take the ball Saturday.

Wells was solid in his last appearance, hurling seven innings of three-run ball in a 3-2 loss at Los Angeles on July 8. He struck out seven Dodgers that day and allowed just one walk before falling to 4-7 overall with a 4.61 ERA.

The right-hander is 2-3 in nine home starts in 2010 and has never faced the Phillies in his career.

Philadelphia entered the All-Star break fresh off a four-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds, but are now having trouble with another NL Central foe. In Friday's tough loss, reliever Ryan Madson gave up Ramirez's bomb to left in the eighth inning to absorb the defeat.

Joe Blanton was decent through the first seven innings and allowed three runs on five hits and three walks with eight K's in the no-decision. Ryan Howard hit a two-run homer and Shane Victorino delivered a solo shot to get the Phils on the board first in the fourth inning.

"We just need to get runs. We need to keep them from scoring runs," Howard said. "Laws of baseball. Outscore the other team."

The Phillies are still 5 1/2 games behind Atlanta for the lead in the National League East, while the New York Mets sit five games off the pace. Both the Braves and Mets lost on Friday. Philadelphia will visit St. Louis for four games after its trip to the Windy City.

Philly hopes that Cole Hamels can stay on the winning side of things when he takes the mound today. Hamels was 1-5 in eight starts before winning his most recent trip to the hill, a 1-0 victory versus Cincinnati on Sunday. He threw 7 2/3 scoreless innings and gave up six hits with three strikeouts and three walks to improve to 7-7 in 18 starts and lower his ERA to 3.78.

Hamels, a left-hander, will try to even his road record Saturday, as he sports a 3-4 ledger in eight away starts this season. The 2008 World Series MVP is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA in five career starts against the Cubs.

The Phillies had a five-game winning streak at Wrigley Field halted with Thursday's loss, but have still won eight of the past 12 meetings between the ballclubs.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.